Saturday, September 6, 2014

Who Is Going To Do What!?!? Fantasy Preview of Sunday's Games

My weekly Saturday column will consist of my thoughts on matchups over the weekend, pigskin pickem & what team I am selecting for eliminator pools. I will discuss who I think the best fantasy player for each team will be, the biggest sleeper and biggest disappointment. Any questions on who should you start over who can be asked via twitter @sully80sports.

New Orleans Saints At Atlanta Falcons: In almost all of the games the best option is typically the QB and the same goes for the Saints, but I will avoid the obvious and pick Pierre Thomas. With Darren Sproles gone Thomas I believe will see even more touches this season in the passing game. Kenny Stills looks as though he is definitely out for this game. I like Colston, Cooks and Graham but the Falcons are at home and they are tough to beat there. Their defense is going to look to get after Brees quickly and I see him throwing a lot of quick passes to Thomas to slow down the rush. My sleeper for this game is Mark Ingram, every year people have wondered if it is time for him to finally carry over his preseason production to the regular season. I think if the Saints get a sizeable lead than we could see a lot of Ingram in the second half. My biggest bust for this game is Brandin Cooks. I still think he has a decent game with a couple of catches but I don’t seem him scoring and I don’t see him as a flex play until we see if the Saints truly use him like they used Lance Moore. Saints have had plenty of preseason fantasy drooling prospects i.e. Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, Kenny Stills etc…but they don’t always pan out.
The Atlanta Falcons have a high prolific fantasy offense just like the Saints. My favorite Falcon in this game is Julio Jones. He has looked great this preseason and seems to be playing with an edge. I expect Ryan to go after him often and early and if his team falls behind they’ll be playing catch up trying to hang with that Saints offense. My sleeper for the Falcons is Steven Jackson, I like him a lot this week because I think the Falcons want to establish their new physicality they have been promoting all year. The best way to slow down the Saints offense and give your lackluster defense a breather is to keep running the football. My biggest bust is Matt Ryan. I still think Ryan has a serviceable game but he is outside the top 10 QBs for me this week. Rob Ryan is a good defensive coordinator and the strength of this defense is its secondary. I think the Falcons will struggle a bit with protection and he won’t have a lot of time to hit the big home runs he is known for in this offense.
I am taking the Saints to win.
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears: Buffalo comes in with a lot of question marks on offense. Manuel looked very poor in the preseason and with the two headed rushing attack and now seemingly injury prone Watkins its tough to pick any one player who is going to stand out. Because of that I am going to old faithful and saying the best fantasy player is going to be Fred Jackson. When in doubt go with the guy who was playing like a top 10 RB in the beginning of last year. My biggest sleeper for the Bills is Mike Williams. He has been their best receiving threat this preseason and if any receiver is likely to get into the endzone in this game it’ll be him. My biggest bust is  C.J. Spiller, I am down on him this year big time. After looking at the stats last year he still had a productive season averaging almost 4.5 yards per carry. But it seems that the Bills are struggling to find productive ways to get him the ball and I think that will continue against the Bears.
The Chicago Bears start the season with high expectations of this potent offense in which we saw two different QBs excel in running it. The Bears are going to pass often in this game and I like Cutler for a big game but the best weapon I see is Brandon Marshall. This is the type of team Marshall will thrive against, the Bills don’t have a corner that can match up with him and Cutler is going to be slinging it often. My biggest sleeper is Santonio Holmes, he looked great after he signed in the preseason and word out of Chicago is he is putting in a lot of work to grasp this offense as quickly as possible. I think Holmes working out of the slot with Jeffrey and Marshall on the outside leaves potential for a big game. My biggest bust is Matt Forte, he is a top 4 back in this league but I just think the Bills have a great run defense. Forte won’t do well on the ground but he will still get his in the passing game. For standard leagues though he won’t produce as a #4 RB but he is still someone I am starting.
I am picking the Bears in both my eliminator pool and pigskin pickem.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: Andy Dalton finished as a top 10 QB last year and in some leagues finished inside the top 5 but I don’t like him this week. Dalton has a history of struggling against the Ravens. My best player for the Bengals this week is AJ Green, I will pick AJ most weeks because I think he is just that good. I think Dalton will struggle but AJ will still get his and that’ll be the difference in this game. My biggest sleeper is Jeremy Hill, I think because this game is going to be physical I expect the Bengals to use Hill a lot to wear out the defense to allow Bernard a little more freedom and take less of the pounding. If they get near the endzone Hill will be the one crossing the goal line. My biggest bust, I already mentioned him but it is Andy Dalton. Dalton has struggled in prior years against the Ravens and I don’t think this year at Baltimore will be any different.
The Baltimore Ravens are missing one of their best weapons in Ray Rice who is suspended and are starting a tailback who struggled last year and has been injured most of the preseason in a brand new offense. My pick for the best player is Dennis Pitta, I think Kubiak loves him some tight ends and this will be no different. I expect a lot of play action passes and Pitta making the catches as the result. Kubiak tends to do well with receivers who have a knack for getting open down field. Based on is ADP I really like Torrey Smith as my sleeper this week. If Flacco makes any big plays it’ll be to Smith. My biggest bust is Bernard Pierce, struggled mightily trying to run the ball last season and he just isn’t staying healthy this season or so it seems. I don’t expect him to be able to do much in this game.
I am taking the Bengals to win in a nail biter.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Cleveland Browns come into this game with a lot of question marks on offense with Josh Gordon gone and new receivers on the field. Ben Tate is going to get a lot of work in the game and Pettine wants to run run run against this Steelers defense. The best passing option is Jordan Cameron and the Steelers know that so I expect he is going to have a very difficult game and is my bust this week for this team. My sleeper is Miles Austin a former member of the top 10 receivers club, Austin has struggled to stay healthy in recent years. He is their best wide receiver and if Hoyer is forced to throw often he could see the bulk of the targets.
I like the Browns defense a lot this year and think they are going to be very difficult to score on. With that said I think the best game out of the Steelers players is going to come from Antonio Brown. He has had success in prior matchups with Haden and the Browns and I think he has the chance to break loose at least once this game. My biggest sleeper is Dri Archer, I think the Steelers offense is going to struggle, Markus Wheaton just looked like a guy who couldn’t get separation this preseason and when he struggles this game I think they go with Archer in the slot for a big play. Le’Veon Bell is my bust this game as I see him struggling gaining on big yards against this defense and I don’t see him getting any goal line touches.
I am taking the Steelers in this game in a field goal battle.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs: I love me some Tennessee football this year. I have high hopes for Ken Whisenhunt and his Titans. They have a lot of high upside players that could either be big time impactful fantasy players or complete duds. Justin Hunter had a strong finish to the year last year and a big preseason and comes in with high praise from the staff. They think he is so talented they actually had to temper down their own expectations of him this preseason as to not let him think he is a superstar before he even reaches the stature. My biggest sleeper is Dexter McCluster, I think he is going to be the Danny Woodhead of this Whisenhunt offense and Woodhead was an excellent play in PPR leagues last year. I think McCluster is going to play with a little added chip with the Chiefs being his former team. My biggest bust is Bishop Sankey a lot of people drafted him expecting he would be the starter and that isn’t the case.
Kansas City Chiefs aren’t going to make a lot of mistakes and I think that is why they will pull this game out, plus they are at home and it is difficult to beat them at Arrowhead. Their best offensive weapon by far is Jamaal Charles and it isn’t even close. With Dwayne Bowe out I think Travis Kelce has a chance to play and make an impact. He has looked great this preseason (granted it was rarely with the starters) but I think with Bowe out they’ll need a bigger guy who can move in space like Kelce to fill in. My biggest bust is the Chiefs Defense they were great last year but I don’t think they play at that level this year and I think Tennessee has a chance at a good offensive game.
I am taking the Chiefs but wouldn’t be surprised with a Tennessee upset.
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets: Derek Carr was my favorite QB in this rookie class and he is the first one to get the starting nod. I think Carr is going to struggle like any rookie QB and especially against Rex Ryan’s defense. I like Rod Steater in PPR leagues and think he might be a flex play this week. The Jets pass defense is its weakest spot and I think with the Raiders starting Carr my sleeper is Mychal Rivera the tight end. Rookie QB’s are known to trust their tight ends and Rivera is a pretty decent one. My bust is Maurice Jones-Drew this Jets defense is just to strong in it’s front 7 for him to get anything going this week.
Geno!Geno!Geno! I think Geno Smith is going to go off for 300+ this game. He is my best offensive player this week for the Jets. He has looked very good this preseason and I expect him to carry it over. My biggest sleeper is Chris Johnson, I think the Jets are going to find ways to involve him in the run and pass game. Last year Johnson finished as a top 10 fantasy running back in most standard leagues and it won’t surprise me at all if we see him their again this year. My biggest bust is Jace Amaro I just don’t expect a very big first game out of the rookie tight end. I like him just not coming out of the gate.
I am taking the Jets all the way here.
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams: This Rams defense is going to be very, very good and I think the Vikings might struggle a bit offensively. The best weapon they have is Peterson but I think he will struggle to run against this front 7. My favorite weapon on the Vikings in this game is Cordarelle Patterson because if anyone is to hit a homerun in this game it is going to be him. My sleeper pick is Greg Jennings, when Matt Cassel took over at QB last season Jennings ended up being a WR3 type of player (20-30 ranking). I expect in PPR leagues for Jennings to have a nice day with receptions. Kyle Rudolph is my biggest bust for the week. A lot of people are assuming Jordan Cameron type production out of Rudolph this year and I like Rudolph a lot but they aren’t the same type of player. Rudolph will have a decent game but the Rams will be tough on him off the line of scrimmage and he may have to stay in to help block often.
The Rams lost Bradford but I am not sure how much that’ll actually hurt this offense. It has been said that the Rams are going to go with the hot hand each week between Stacy and Cunningham so neither one of them I see breaking out this week. My best offensive weapon for the Rams this week is Tavon Austin, I think the Rams want to get him more involved in the offense than they did last year and I can see him having a Percy Harvin (Thursday night) type of performance in this game. My sleeper is Kenny Britt, I almost went Brian Quick here but I think Britt and Fisher being brought back together might ignite the old Britt we saw in Tennessee with the top 10 potential. My biggest bust is whoever plays running back for the Rams this weekend. I just see these guys splitting carries and no one having a big game so based on ADP Zac Stacy will be the bigger bust.
I am taking the Rams defense in this one to win a close game.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: The biggest question mark for fantasy owners is, is Ridley going to play at running back if not who is. We already know Vereen is going to be involved but they love to use him as a receiver as well. Shane Vereen & Tom Brady are my top players for the Patriots this weekend. Last year Vereen had 100 yards rushing and 7 receptions in the opening week and I except similar reception totals and around 60 yards rushing. He is one of Brady’s favorite receiving targets. My sleeper for the Patriots is Aaron Dobson, if anyone is to make a big play in the passing game it’ll be Dobson. With another year under his belt I think his confidence has grown tremendously and gives Brady a legitimate deep threat. Stevan Ridley is my biggest bust because no one seems to whether or not he is the starting running back. Ridley is a player who could end up with 1 carry a fumble and never see the field again or go off for 100+  yards. Just can’t trust him.
The Miami Dolphins want to be the fastest up tempo team in the league this year. Ryan Tannehill now entering his 3rd season is in a make or break year for himself in this offense. Their offense is tough to read as to who the potential breakout player is going to be but I am going to go with Brandon Gibson. Mike Wallace is going to have Revis on him all game long and I don’t think Tannehill will look his way often. I think Gibson is a very good quick hitter and red zone threat. My sleeper is Knowshon Moreno I think Moreno will make an impact in the passing game. He looked great in his one preseason game and I think with the way New England gets after the QB he will have to play more because of his pass protection abilities. My biggest bust is Mike Wallace because he is going to have Revis on him all game long.
I am taking the Patriots to win this game handily.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles: The Jaguars come into this season as favorite to finish near the bottom once again. But I do like some of their new pieces on the offensive side of the ball to at least be respectable this year. Chad Henne is going to start the season as the quarterback which is good news for Cecil Shorts owners because he is one of Henne’s favorite targets. Even with Cecil Shorts having health concerns he is still my best option for the Jaguars offense. He is an underrated wide receiver who tends to be a good option in PPR leagues. My sleeper in this game for them is Marqise Lee, he has tremendous talent and the ability to make a big play happen. He looked very good this preseason and I think if Shorts isn’t healthy is going to see the bulk of the targets. My bust this week is Toby Gerhart, I don’t see the Jaguars being able to run the ball to often with how quickly the Eagles can score. They are going to be behind much of the game and are going to need to throw it to try and catch up.
The Eagles are an interesting team offensively because they are projected to be a top 3 offensive team yet no one knows who the biggest receiving weapon will be. I think LeSean McCoy has the biggest week for any running back. The holes this team creates in the run game will allow for a couple of big plays for him. My biggest sleeper is Zach Ertz, Ertz was 2nd only to Jimmy Graham in red zone targets at the end of last season. Out of all the receiving options he is the best one to find the end zone.
Eagles will win this one in a run away.
Washington Redskins at Houston Texans: The Redskins looked scary bad in the preseason on offense. They gave RGIII no time in the pocket and when things broke down it seemed RGIII wanted to make things happen with his arm more so than his legs. I like Alfred Morris to be the team’s best weapon in the game. They are going to have to run often to slow down the pass rush of the Texans. My sleeper is Jordan Reed, the Texans will be in the backfield quickly and won’t give RGIII enough time to set up his big plays downfield. Because of this I see RGIII getting the ball out quickly and Jordan Reed being the recipient of a lot of those looks. My biggest bust is Desean Jackson for the very reason I just stated. He is going to catch some short passes and the Redskins won’t be able to block the Texan defenders long enough for him to do any damage downfield.
The Redskins secondary is bad, and they didn’t improve it at all this off season. That is good news for both DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson. Andre Johnson should have a monster game against this secondary and make a statement for any team looking to trade for his services (he wants out of Houston). My sleeper pick is Alfred Blue, I know Foster says he feels healthy and he is definitely going to get the bulk of the plays at RB, but Blue is going to be used. He is very effective in the passing game and they may use him for a couple of carries. He could get 10 touches and if he is as dynamic as people say he may do some damage with those. My biggest bust is Arian Foster, I know this Redskins team is bad but I can see the Texans looking to evenly split Foster’s carries with Grimes just to keep him healthy in a game they know they don’t need him to much in.
I am taking the Texans to win at home.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys: Michael Crabtree when healthy has made Colin Kaepernick a top 10 fantasy QB, when he isn’t Kaep is much worse. He is questionable heading into Sunday’s matchup with Dallas. If word comes down he is healthy and good to go Michael Crabtree will end up having a very big game. The Cowboys are being talked about as possibly having one of the worst defenses in NFL history. My biggest sleeper is Carlos Hyde, the rookie had a great preseason and while Frank Gore will get the bulk of the carries, I think Hyde will do very well with his 10-12 touches. My biggest bust Stevie Johnson, he had a very lackluster preseason and I can see Bruce Ellington surpassing Johnson by years end as the teams slot receiver.
The Dallas Cowboys have a chance to match an offense in the league as seen last year with their performance against Denver. And with how bad this defense is projected to be they may be in a lot of shootouts. This game is not one of them though because of how good the 49ers defense is. My best player in this game is Dez Bryant, I don’t care how good San Fran’s defense is it can’t stop Bryant when he is on. Bryant had a career year last year and it will only get better from here. My biggest sleeper is Cole Beasely for PPR leagues, Cole seems to be that slot receiver these high powered offenses have that just eat up receptions. Don’t be surprised he has 7-8 receptions. My biggest bust is DeMarco Murray, I think Murray is one of the best backs in the league but not against the run defense of the 49ers. He’ll have a quiet game running the ball but should still be involved in the passing offense to put up decent fantasy numbers.
I am taking San Fran to win in Dallas for the first time since 2002.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This game is going to be tough to predict because we don’t yet know the status of Cam Newton. If Newton is hurt I expect the offense to lean heavily on its running backs and only pass when necessary. If Cam does play than I expect Greg Olsen to have a big game. He is their best receiving option this season or at least until Kelvin Benjamin (my sleeper) gets his feet wet. Benjamin has the potential to be a big time playmaker for this offense but it’ll take time for him to get accustomed to a full NFL game. My biggest bust is Cam Newton, who has a history of big games against the Buccaneers just won’t be able to be as mobile with that rib injury if he does play.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers brought in a new QB hoping he has the type of success he had as a backup in Chicago. Josh McCown had a great season last year when he filled in for Cutler so much so that some people that he should remain the starter. Just like in Chicago McCown has big targets and he’ll use them wisely. I think McCown has the biggest game and it’s because both receivers are going to help tremendously. My sleeper pick is Mike Evans because the Panthers secondary is unproven and don’t have anyone who can match up with Evans size and ability. My biggest bust is Doug Martin who is going to struggle against this excellent front 7 of the Panthers.
If healthy I am taking the Panthers in a close one, if Cam is out than it’s the Bucs at home.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: What a kickoff to Sunday night football. Two big time offenses going head to head once again after the Colts beat them last year. I think TY Hilton is going to have a monster game for the Colts. He is explosive and when used in the slot is going to be to dynamic for the Broncos to cover. My sleeper is Hakeem Nicks, they got a former top 10 receiver in Nicks who still has that ability. He came into camp a bit out of shape but showed his talent when he faced his former team in the Giants in the preseason. He has the ability to make a lot of catches and isn’t afraid to go over the middle. My biggest bust is everybody’s biggest bust Trent Richardson, he just doesn’t look comfortable in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos are looking to repeat the same type of offensive production they had last season. I think the Bronco’s will make a more conservative effort to run the ball more this season and that’s why I expect a big game out of Montee Ball. I think he is the main guy and sees a ton of action in this game. My sleeper pick is Cody Latimer, word out of Denver is he is going to be the guy over Caldwell who is going to see the majority of Welker snaps while he is suspended. My biggest bust is Emmanuel Sanders, after word that Welker got suspended many people moved him inside their top 10 this week. I don’t think he has that big of a game. He’ll play well but finish near the back end of the top 20 guys.
I am taking the Broncos to win at home.

That does it for my preview for the Sunday games, any questions feel free to ask me on twitter.

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