Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Tuesday Morning Thoughts:

Instead of telling people what they already know from each game from the week Tuesdays will be spent sharing some of the factors I look into when deciding why I rank players where I do. I'll be doing team by team facts.

ARIZONA CARDINALS: Since returning for injury Carson Palmer has been a top 12 quarterback the last 2 weeks and with a matchup with the Eagles this week I think we could see another top 12 performance. Andre Ellington continues to play as a top 10 running back despite not getting in the endzone. This past week we saw Stefan Taylor take some of his carries in the redzone but I don't think that'll continue. Michael Floyd has been playing at a top 20 level with the return of Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald has been outside the top 30. Floyd will raise his game to top 15 by seasons end if Palmer stays healthy and Fitzgerald will finish outside the top 30.

ATLANTA FALCONS: In the last 3 weeks Matt Ryan is averaging 13 points a game. That would currently rank him on average at the 22nd best QB during that span. During that span he faced 3 of the top 13 most favorable passing defenses in the league. Over the last 4 weeks Roddy White has been the better play (in part because of a very good week 7) but both WRs are currently ranked outside the top 20 during that span. Until the Falcons offensive line turns it around and they find a good run game I don't trust anyone in this offense.

BALTIMORE RAVENS: Joe Flacco's numbers are very skewed based on his week 4 (25.38) and week 6 (32.24) performances. Outside of those two games he is averaging 12.96 points per week which is actually less than Matt Ryan who we discussed above. Teams are beginning to roll coverage towards Steve Smith and we are seeing the results with Torrey Smith being a top 3 receiver the last two weeks. Since taking over as the primary RB in Baltimore Justin Forsett has been a top 16 running back. Bernard Pierce has been the goalline back during this time.

BUFFALO BILLS: Kyle Orton is playing at a top 15 level and with the injuries to both Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller they may lean on him to pass a litttle more. I think he will continue at this top 20 level. I like Bryce Brown for his potential but if you are desperate for a running back right away then I am going with Anthony Dixon as he should see the majority of the touches.

CAROLINA PANTHERS: Cam definitely is beginning to run again and that is good for all owners who have him. He ran for 41 yards against the Packers the 2nd most against any team this season. His wide receiver production outside of Kelvin Benjamin is still shaky and with no running backs he'll be a top 12 QB but won't crack the top 5 this season. Typically with rookies you find inconsistencies but Benjamin has produced double digit fantasy points every week but 2 so far.

CHICAGO BEARS: Martellus Bennett's history tells us that after the start of the second half of the season his numbers begin to drop off. He was targeted a lot sunday but with little production. I still have faith he'll finish as a top 8 tight end but keep an eye on this lockerroom situation. This was Jeffrey's really only bad week other than the week he tried to go on his hamstring injury. Forte continues to turn his season around after the slow start and is the top running back in fantasy over the last 4 weeks.

CINCINNATI BENGALS: The hope is AJ Green will return this week and that should help this Bengals offense. I knew going into the game on Sunday that Dalton would struggle alittle because the only receiver he has is Mohamed Sanu and he had to face Vontae Davis who has been shutting down receivers all season long. One strange thing is the lack of use of Giovani Bernard in the passing game especially with them missing their best receiver. I think that'll change in the upcoming weeks.

CLEVELAND BROWNS: Mike Pettine says Brian Hoyer will remain the teams starting quarterback heading into week 8. What a tale of two weeks, after their week 6 win reports of him signing a long term extension were being talked about, after week 7 people are asking if he is going to start week 8. Hoyer is not a fantasy QB I want to own simply because he has only thrown more than 1 TD pass once this season. I am hoping the running game struggles were a result of trying to break in a new center and not a sign of things to come with Alex Mack out.

DALLAS COWBOYS: With all the talk about Demarco Murray it should be noted that over the last 4 weeks Tony Romo has returned as a top 10 fantasy QB. As the season continues I believe they are going to gradually lower the amount of touches for Murray and that means it will be time for Romo to throw a little more. He is a QB I am trying to own in every league and someone you may still be able to buy low for. During this 4 week stretch both Terrence Williams and Dez Bryant have been producing top 10 quality fantasy play for wide receivers. I am more weary on Williams but fantasy owners should be riding him while he is hot.

DENVER BRONCOS: Here comes Demaryius Thomas, we knew he wasn't going to be quiet all season, Peyton Manning wouldn't allow it. I think it is safe to say Montee Ball has lost his starting job with the way Ronnie Hillman is currently playing. Emmanuel Sanders finally removed his name from the top targeted receiver yet to score a touchdown. He isn't a redzone target so I don't expect to many touchdowns from him this season.

DETROIT LIONS: Joique Bell scored a rushing touchdown which salvaged his poor performance against a team that doesn't have to stout of a run defense. Golden Tate has continued his top 10 fantasy performance with Calvin Johnson out, but Johnson should return next week. If that happens I still think Tate will be a top 20 player. It is important to note that with both Bush and Bell healthy no other Lions RB played and there for can be dropped.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb & Davante Adams all scored receiving touchdowns and Rodgers tried to get one for his Tight End Richard Rodgers at the end of the game. Lacy scored but again disappointed with his total yardage. I have become a Lacy hater after the 2nd week of the season. Still think he has fantasy value as a RB2/Flex but he is touchdown dependent. As for Rodgers in the last 4 weeks he has thrown 13 TD passes to 0 interceptions. Returning back to the top 3 status we've always knew he was.

HOUSTON TEXANS: Another game that makes you question who you would rather own Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, but saw the same amount of targets but when watching the game Hopkins is more of the big play guy now. He only seems to get targets deep downfield so against strong defense I would suspect Johnson to have the better games. Arian Foster continues to play very well this season, he twisted his knee a little awkwardly on a play but kept playing. Keep an eye on his injury status this week.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: This is the 2nd week in a row that Richardson led in touches. Bradshaw scored which made him the better fantasy play but it might be time to start thinking to sell high. With Bradshaw's injury history its only a matter of time before he needs to get some rest. Also the Colts still clearly think Richardson is their guy for the future. As for Wayne he is quickly slowing down now that Hilton is really producing. He still saw 8 targets but only managed 4 catches. He is a good play as aWR3/Flex in PPR leagues but I am willing to drop in in standard leagues. Dwayne Allen continues his run as a potential top 5 tight end this season.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Denard Robinson was already having a decent season on very limited touches. He finally was given a chance and he took advantage of it, something the other Jaguars couldn't do when given the same opportunity. Storm Johnson was still used late in the game as a goal line runner and to finish out the game. Allen Robinson had another strong game, I still think Shorts is the best receiver on the team but Robinson is making a strong case.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: For PPR owners Dwayne Bowe is starting to get it together and could be a WR3/Flex type of player but I am avoiding him in all standard leagues. Alex Smith just doesn't target him in the redzone. Kelce had a quiet game and those should be expected I don't think we can honestly trust anyone in fantasy week in week out on this team except for Jamaal Charles. Andy Reid's offense spreads the ball around so much and Alex Smith does a great job of distributing it that you never know who will have a good week.

MIAMI DOLPHINS: Ryan Tannehill is continuing his strong play since being called out by Coach Philbin. He has been a top 15 QB over the last 4 weeks and that is with him having a bye in that span. Mike Wallace continues to just score touchdowns. Jarvis Landry has taken over as the WR2 in my opinion. He is a good bye week fillin guy as a WR3 with the right matchup. This is Lamar Millers backfield for the time being as long as he can continue playing well.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: This is Jerrick McKinnon's backfield and he is a top 15 running back from here on out. Bridgewater still struggled but clearly he is trying to get the ball to Greg Jennings and Jarius Wright. Jennings has the potential to be a top 30 WR in this offense. Cordarelle scored a TD but he still just isn't being used enough to start.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: With Stevan Ridley out, LaFell stepping up as a WR2 type of player and Gronkowski returning to form I think it is safe to say Tom Brady is returning to a top 12 fantasy quarterback. I will fully admit I wrote him off as a droppable player and he is proving me wrong. I like Jonas Gray as a deep bench stash but this is Vereen's backfield. Tymes is an interesting player to keep watch of after his big touchdown last week.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: For those who follow me on Twitter (@sully80sports) knew that I thought Colston would have a nice game this week following the bye week. My thought process are when things aren't working go back to what got you to where you are. Pierre Thomas is said to be missing the next 2-3 weeks which means Cadet will take over as the pass catching back. I think Ingram may take part of that role as well. Cooks has been very quiet after starting the season so strongly he is a good bench depth guy and a bye week fill in until he gets it going again. Drew Brees had one of his better fantasy days of the season but the thought process of him being a top 3 receiver is out the window and to finish as a top 5 this year looks pretty tough.

NEW YORK GIANTS: Andre Williams continues his struggle at RB which to me is understandable. He isn't a player that is going to make guys miss, he engages contact and takes what he can. Eli had a good bounce back game after getting shut out by the EAgles. He is continuing to play turn over free football and that makes him a top 10 QB in this offense. Randle led the team in targets but you get the feeling that Beckam is the better player. Donnell finally put up a good game only to fumble it twice. Watch out for him to entire the Coughlin dog house because of it.

NEW YORK JETS: The Jets made one of the bigger fantasy news of the weekend and they played their game Thursday. They added Percy Harvin via trade. Harvin was being used a lot in Seattle but not producing much but my thinking is the Jets will use him differently. He'll still be used in quick passes and screens but I think the Jets are more likely to try and get him the ball downfield. Chris Ivory had a great matchup and took advantage of it. Against teams with poor running defenses Ivory can be a top 12 back. Decker produced enough to say he should be started every week when healthy.

OAKLAND RAIDERS: You knew Derek Carr wasn't going to put up the same type of game he had last week. James Jones is still the most consistent receiver on the team with Andre Holmes having the most potential. Darren McFadden is only 27 so he still has potential to be a good back and he is being used a lot. For now he is a flex play but that role could increase if he continues to play well and stay healthy.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: They had the bye week so not much to report here. Sounds like Sproles is definitely out this week. I always love top fantasy players out of a bye week so I expect big games from McCoy, Foles and Maclin.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Le'Veon Bell is playing at another level this season. His ability to produce in both the run game and pass game makes him a top 5 back in this league. If the Steelers could start getting him in the endzone he could be the #1 fantasy back this seson. Antonio Brown is the only Steelers receiver you should be starting but if you were desperate and followed my announcement on Bryant last night you would know I called a big play from him. I like Bryant's potential in the redzone and think he is a deep league stash player.

ST. LOUIS RAMS: Tre Mason looks as though he has taken over this backfield. He is producing just like Zac Stacy did last season and was productive against a very good run defense in Seattle. Brian Quick was the 2nd most targeted receiver  the game but only saw 3 targets. Not sure if it is match up based or not but he should be benched but not dropped yet he has had some very tough matchups the last two weeks.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: Philip Rivers struggled a bit but that doesn't surprise me against an Andy Reid team out of a bye week. Gates had a strong game, and Keenan Allen continues to rack up the targets but not producing much from it. He now leads the league in targets without a touchdown. Brandon Oliver is a good player but inconsistencies will be a part of his game all season and with Matthews coming back soon he will end up being a low end RB2/flex player. Malcom Floyd saw 7 targets and continues his strong season. I think the injury suffered by Eddie Royal affected his play I would keep him on your bench until he returns healthy.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Another struggle by Frank Gore, after the bye week it won't surprise me if this becomes the Hyde/Lattimore backfield for the future. Not saying Gore won't get his carries but I think Hyde begins to take over. Stevie Johnson continues to have good chemistry with Kaepernick even though he doesn't see the field as much as Crabtree and Lloyd. Crabtree continues to have a terrible fantasy season (bad call by me).

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Lynch had his worst game of the season but the real story was the play of Russell Wilson. Threw for 300, ran for a 100 and was the best fantasy QB of the week. Doug Baldwin finally broke out and I think that'll continue to happen with Percy gone. He is the only Seahawk receiver I want to own. As for Wilson I though he would have his best season of his fantasy career this year and you would know this by seeing my preseason rankings.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: They had a bye week as well not much to report. I like Vincent Jackson to continue his return as a top 15 wide receiver with Mike Glennon at quarterback. Mike Evans is a redzone threat and a good flex play. Louis Murphy has been playing well and is worth stashing because of his chemistry with Glennon. I don't want any part of the Buccaneers backfield but may look to take a flier on Charles Sims.

TENNESSEE TITANS: Delanie Walker and Kendall Wright continue to be the only players you want on your team. I am ok with most owners dropping Justin Hunter. It is tough to get a read on this offense since Jake Locker can never stay healthy. When healthy he had been playing pretty well and I still have faith he can produce in this league with this offense. Sankey isn't showing anymore than Greene and because of that when Greene returns I think he will take over the starting role again.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS: Colt McCoy has replaced Kirk Cousins as the starting QB in Washington but I think it'll only be for this week as RGIII has the potential to return after the bye week. So unless you are desperate at QB he isn't worth adding. Morris continues to struggle in the run game and Roy Helu continues to be used more and more. He is an interesting guy to keep an eye on. Garcon was targeted a lot once McCoy took over. I think Jackson's numbers will drop because McCoy doesn't have a great deep ball arm. Jordan Reed's value should stay the same.





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